Hate to be an alarmist just when we have declared victory and forgive the length of this post, but while it is probably a 25% scenario, there is a clear short term path to tyranny and even if we survive this episode, it illustrates how fragile our democracy is, and how many "patriots" prefer authoritarian demagoguery to majority rule by leadership with whom they disagree.
This is where we are.
1. Barr has authorized investigations into election fraud, with absolutely zero evidence. This has prompted the DOJ elections crimes chief to resign in protest.
2. trump continues to scream fraud, despite losing every court case (the case he won in PA was to get his poll watchers 4 feet closer) and his enablers in Congress continue to support his bid to topple an election.
3. The Constitution is a little vague on electors. It gives state legislatures the power to determine how electors are selected. The historical norm is that those electors represent the popular vote, but there is no such requirement in the Constitution and we have been disregarding norms for over 5 years.
So, consider this:
1. Barr commissions a report on election fraud. While the report is not released prior to the selection of electors on Dec. 14, Barr issues a statement in late November or early December that there is indication of "substantial irregularities" without providing specifics. There is obvious precedent for this with his summary of the Mueller Report.
2. Based on Barr's suggestion of fraud, state legislatures in WI, MI, GA, AZ and PA determine to send their own slate of electors, deeming the popular vote unreliable. They are all trump electors and get trump over 270.
3. Biden, supported by the Democratic Party, remnants of the former Republican Party, the ACLU, governors in WI, MI and PA fight this move to the Supreme Court. Barrett makes the 5th "textualist" on the Court. (Not clear if Alito and Thomas are actually textualists or just right wing radicals representing the furthest right 5% of the US.)
4. Given the language in the Constitution, the textualists determine that it is up to state legislatures to determine how electors are chosen, so what they have done is totally "constitutional". The relevant language is: "Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress..." No mention of the popular vote result, or even if a popular vote needs to be held. trump wins 5-4 with Roberts, who does show respect for democracy and the common good, in the minority.
This is the problem with textual interpretation of the Constitution. It doesn't allow for impact on people (ACA) or even on Democracy per se. Obviously, the founders did not intend that legislatures would throw out a popular vote if they disagreed, but they didn't put those words in the document.
5. In February, after trump is installed for another 4 years, Barr releases the full report and "substantial irregularities" is actually about 250 votes across 15 states. But that now becomes irrelevant.
Mitch and trump have been preparing for this day for at least 5 years, starting when the Merrick Garland nomination was shelved for nine months. trump has been talking about voter fraud since he was elected in 2016 while losing the popular vote. There has been almost zero pushback from the party of trump. And now, while the world watches in horror, the trumpists (Mitch, Graham, Cruz, Rubio, Perdue, Loeffler, McCarthy, et. al.) are either silent or overtly adding to the undermining of the election. In fact, our great governor, DeSantis, has overtly called the 4th quarter play - imploring trumpist state legislatures to overturn the popular vote.
Will this happen? Hopefully not. Hopefully we will be "saved" by people with some modicum of integrity, like Romney and Sasse. But there are no guarantees and the game plan is now clear. And if we avoid the immediate threat, and you think the trumpist move to tyranny is gone, forget it. We lost the opportunity a week ago to punish the enablers so we now have a problem that is much bigger than trump himself. trumpism is with us for the foreseeable future, regardless of whether we survive the current attack.